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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

But this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still