Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
